In another blow to the Modi Government's official account of the Godhra train incident, an independent panel of engineers probing the technical aspects of the tragedy has concluded that it is "highly unlikely" that the fire which engulfed coach S-6 of the Sabarmati Express on February 28, 2002, "could have started on the floor of the passage or the floor outside the toilets by throwing of flammable liquid."
The findings of the report — prepared by a multi-disciplinary group of experts on the basis of a scientific review of the physical evidence, testimony and medical records of the victims — broadly support those of the Justice U.C. Banerjee committee, whose interim report on Godhra was handed over to the Railway Board today.
The Gujarat police, however, will draw little comfort from the report as it undermines their claim that the fire was started by miscreants forcibly entering S-6 and pouring petrol on the floor.
Burn patterns studied
A key part of the Godhra puzzle, the engineers say, can be resolved when the burn patterns on coach S-6 are compared with those on a number of rail coaches that have caught fire recently. In particular, they found a striking similarity between the damage sustained by S-6 and coach 16526, which caught fire accidentally at a railway siding in Jagadhri near Delhi in November 2003. It is possible, they conclude, that the fire originated from luggage below the seat, and started by burning the lower berth first. "The resultant dense and high temperature smoke spread to the top of the carriage and then moved along the ceiling and between the ceiling and the roof through the length of the coach. The radiative and convective heat generated eventually resulted in a flash over which the fire engulfed the entire coach towards the top."
The engineers involved in the study, conducted under the aegis of the Hazards Centre, include A.K. Roy, a chemical engineer with expertise in hazards and safety, Prof. Dinesh Mohan, a Delhi IIT biomedical engineer with expertise in human tolerance to injuries, Prof. Sunil Kale, a mechanical engineer from IIT Delhi with expertise in thermodynamics and fluidisation, and S.N. Chakravarty, a mechanical engineer with more than 10 years experience in the coaching section of the Railways.
Fifty-eight passengers, many of them activists of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, died in the tragedy, which the Gujarat Government and police say was the result of a pre-planned conspiracy involving dozens of people. At present, more than 100 individuals from Godhra have been arrested under the Prevention of Terrorism Act and charged with involvement in the case.
Source of fire
The engineers' report observes that the most flammable material in a railway coach is the latex foam in the seats. Though the foam is protected by a plywood base and vinyl cover, "these materials can be set on fire by cigarettes, matchsticks or lighters that are still burning. If there is any cooking equipment with fuel stored below the seat, this can worsen matters." While a burning rag thrown by the mob outside could have been an ignition source, it "would have to first penetrate between the bars on the window before landing on people and luggage to initiate a fire."
If the fire had indeed started on the floor near the toilets, as the Gujarat police claims, "inflammable plywood and foam in three tiers of seats would not be available for the fire to burn in this area." And if the fire was started by an inflammable fluid on the floor, "the flames would have been noticed right away in a very crowded carriage, precluding the possibility of a long smouldering source."
Stating that the most probable origin point for the fire was in the region between the last two cabins, the engineers say, "The initiation is unlikely to have been noticed until the dense asphyxiating smoke emerged from the burning latex foam." Passengers in cabins 8 and 9 would have tried to escape from the exits near seat 72 while passengers in the other cabins would have run in the opposite direction, towards seat 1. Given the overcrowding, "150 or more people must have gathered trying to escape, and been subjected to dense and toxic fumes emanating from the roof and upper levels," leading to many passengers asphyxiating or falling unconscious and being burnt by the fire.
The report attacks the slipshod manner in which the testimony of passengers and vital forensic material was gathered by the investigating agencies. Calling for computer and experimental simulations to conclusively understand the process of accidental combustion inside railway coaches, the experts say that serious thought needs to be given to the design of doors and exits and emergency escape routes.